The web as I see it.

Months ago Tim O`Reilly wrote an interesting article about the Web 2.0 principles and how this idea began.
Nowadays it seems that we are in a new kind of bubble, the “Bubble 2.0”. During the last months we have seen thousands of “web 2.0” sites growing up, all of them with a new collaborative and easy way to do our jobs, with Google at first place (they already bought writely), Microsoft has make his move with their OfficeLive web app. Every day there are new endeavors trying to catch up this new fresh wave, so today we can clearly see CRM or ERP 2.0 style apps online.
From my little point of view, I can imagine the “web 2.0 life-cycle” in 3 phases:

First phase: Back to the bubble
We are now in this phase, thousands of new easy and collaborative sites every day saying “hello beta world”, many of them are useful and they have an adequate initial investment to survive, the others, who probably will not survive in the long term, are programmers efforts to launch a new and enjoyable tool or web site.
Like always in our history this only could be possible with the right technology to do it. Not only today’s broadband connections but with great tools, programming languages and frameworks like, Ajax, Ruby, and Rails.

Second phase: Clone wars
People will begin to use these new applications, some of them for free; others with a license per user or maybe with another tricky and convenient business model for the web application Owner and the buyer too. We can see this today.
Some efforts without sufficient initial investment will fail, others will fail not only for this reason but because their sites will not fulfill the requirements needed for the “web 2.0 user” (b2b sector included.), and this will happen because we will have thousand applications online, and yes, we will have much more demanding users.
And finally the last group that will not survive will break down their actions falling to the black hole of forgotten web sites only because they will not have enough resources to face the big ones.
At the end of this phase we will see giant’s corporations with mutated business models, web 2.0 enhanced products, and a few starts up around the world claim themselves to be the clone wars survivors.

The final phase: the real online experience?
With this scenario around the world, the Internet user will change his life style definitely, productivity and collaboration will be on top of the edge, and the information value will be increased dramatically because all people and enterprises data will be online, (and yes, security will be an issue at this point for sure).
Maybe new software paradigms will be developed, and a new set of analysis patterns for this domain will created. So Technology will evolve and the day will come when our Personal Computers will transform in a high resolution screen with a little processor and a software core, the Operating Systems will be online with a new set of features and a linked view of our world. So, my question is, aren´t we going back to the “mainframe 2.0”?

Thanks.
Comments? > Victor.a.Rottenstein [at] gmail [dot] com